The dollar had been sold recently partly because of the view that the Fed will end its rate hikes. If that thinking is wrong, then so is the dollar selling, perhaps.

The dollar will probably stay strong, as the U.S. economy is holding up.

The euro is becoming firmer, supported by a better economic outlook and expectations of further interest-rate increases by the ECB.

Strong economic figures will confirm the Japanese economy is doing better, reinforcing expectations of an end to the zero- interest-rate policy as early as the fourth quarter. That's yen positive for sure.

A positive nationwide core figure will trigger relieved yen-buying.

Speculation about an early shift in policy will fitfully encourage yen-buying in the short term. That will become increasingly so as we head toward April.

European economies are picking up. The German economy in particular is expanding, shown in yesterday's confidence figures, supporting the euro.

You don't need to think the economy is losing momentum.

Given what's already priced in, I don't think there's any reason for the yen to rise much further.

Fukui will probably reiterate prospects for steady economic recovery. Even if Fukui says the same thing as before, some investors will use it as an excuse to buy the yen as the dollar is going through a short- term decline.